The Future of Work: Meeting the Global Challenge of Demographic Change and Automation

Abstract:

We explore future job creation needs under conditions of demographic, economic, and technological change. First, we estimate the implications for job creation in 2020–2030 of population growth, changes in labor force participation, and the achievement of target unemployment rates, by age and gender. Second, we analyze the job creation needs by country income group. Finally, we examine the effects of accelerated automation. Overall, shifting demographics, changing labor force participation rates, reductions in unemployment to target levels of 8/4 percent (youth/adults), and automation combine to require the creation of approximately 340 million jobs in 2020–2030.