TY - JOUR T1 - Toward understanding the impact of artificial intelligence on labor JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Y1 - 2019 A1 - Frank, Morgan R A1 - Autor, David A1 - Bessen, James E A1 - Brynjolfsson, Erik A1 - Cebrian, Manuel A1 - Deming, David J A1 - Feldman, Maryann A1 - Groh, Matthew A1 - Lobo, José A1 - Moro, Esteban A1 - Wang, Dashun A1 - Youn, Hyejin A1 - Rahwan, Iyad AB -

Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation technologies have the potential to significantly disrupt labor markets. While AI and automation can augment the productivity of some workers, they can replace the work done by others and will likely transform almost all occupations at least to some degree. Rising automation is happening in a period of growing economic inequality, raising fears of mass technological unemployment and a renewed call for policy efforts to address the consequences of technological change. In this paper we discuss the barriers that inhibit scientists from measuring the effects of AI and automation on the future of work. These barriers include the lack of high-quality data about the nature of work (e.g., the dynamic requirements of occupations), lack of empirically informed models of key microlevel processes (e.g., skill substitution and human–machine complementarity), and insufficient understanding of how cognitive technologies interact with broader economic dynamics and institutional mechanisms (e.g., urban migration and international trade policy). Overcoming these barriers requires improvements in the longitudinal and spatial resolution of data, as well as refinements to data on workplace skills. These improvements will enable multidisciplinary research to quantitatively monitor and predict the complex evolution of work in tandem with technological progress. Finally, given the fundamental uncertainty in predicting technological change, we recommend developing a decision framework that focuses on resilience to unexpected scenarios in addition to general equilibrium behavior.

VL - 116 UR - http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1900949116 ER - TY - ABST T1 - The growing importance of social skills in the labor market Y1 - 2015 A1 - Deming, David J PB - National Bureau of Economic Research ER -